A study has said that if the third wave of Kovid-19 comes, then it is not expected to be as serious as the second wave. The study, based on mathematical ‘modelling’ analysis published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR), has highlighted that the third wave of corona virus can be reduced to a great extent by expanding the scope of vaccination.
The study discusses a scenario in which 40 percent of the population took both doses within three months of the second wave. It states that the effect of vaccination is to reduce the severity of infection by 60 percent. According to the study, this shows that vaccination during a possible third wave can reduce the severity to a great extent.
The authors of “Probability of a third wave of COVID-19 in India: Mathematical modeling-based analysis” include Sandeep Mandal, Balram Bhargava and Samiran Panda of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and Nimalan Arinaminpati of Imperial College London.
Considering four hypotheses regarding the third wave, the study said, infection-based immunity may decrease over time, with people already infected becoming re-infected, even if the current virus remains unchanged.
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