Coronavirus: Many scientists are doing research and study regarding the corona, so that this virus can be understood well and accordingly strategy can be made to win over it. Meanwhile, the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) has created a simulation model by understanding the data of people infected with the corona virus so far, in which it has been estimated that the third wave of corona virus in Mumbai is very unlikely to be dangerous, However, this is possible only until the virus goes along with some other variant.
About 80 percent of the population of Mumbai has been infected – Model
The model has been developed by Sandeep Juneja and Daksha Mittal, Deans of TIFR’s School of Technology and Computer Science. It has been estimated that as of June 1, about 80 percent of Mumbai’s population has already been exposed to Kovid-19, with 90 percent people living in slums and 70 percent people living in non-slum settlements.
Juneja explained that “there is a need to establish mechanisms that can measure the effects of frequent re-infections and variants that can break existing immunity or immunity from vaccines, and because of repeated infection itself, there is a need for corona virus.” A wave is born.
Covid wave will be larger in areas that were less exposed to virus in previous waves – model
TIFR has prepared this model on the basis of possible scenario. The city has been opened up to 60 per cent level since June and the new variant is 50 per cent more contagious than the Delta variant. In such a situation, the third wave will still not be bigger than the second wave. The model also predicts that the Covid wave will be larger in areas that were less exposed to the virus in previous waves.
The simulation model states that if vaccination is widely carried out in June, July and August and the vaccine is 75 to 95 percent effective, “the Covid wave will remain negligible until September.”
In the month of September last year, TIFR had similarly predicted that the second wave of corona would be mild but the delta variant turned out to be more quickly spreading and contagious and the delta variant infected many people in the second wave against everyone’s predictions . In the new model, scientists have said that it is very difficult to make a projection model without knowing about the variant and transmission of any virus.