New Delhi: The scientist involved in the government’s panel related to the corona epidemic, Prof. Manindra Aggarwal has said that if Kovid Appropriate Behavior is not followed, then the possible third wave of corona virus can reach its peak between October-November. This panel has been entrusted with the task of modeling Kovid-19 cases.
Pro. Agarwal is working on the sutra model. From this, a mathematical estimate of Kovid-19 cases is made. Aggarwal said that in the second wave, half the cases are expected to be reported daily in comparison to the number of cases reported daily in the third wave. However, he warned that if a new strain comes, the infection can spread rapidly during the third wave.
Created three possible scenarios of the third wave
Professor Aggarwal said in a tweet that “We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic. In this we believe that life returns to normal by August and there are no new mutants. The other is intermediate. In this we assume that the optimistic scenario Apart from the assumptions vaccination is 20% less effective.”
“The third one is pessimistic. Its assumption is different from the intermediate one, in August a new m spread 25% more infectious mutants (it is not delta plus which is more infectious than the delta variant),” said Professor Agarwal. If there is no fast-spreading mutant, the third wave will be a weaker one and if there is such a mutant, the third wave will be greater than the first.”
The panel was criticized for the second wave
The Department of Science and Technology had last year constituted a government panel to forecast the rise in coronavirus cases using mathematical models. In this Prof. Manindra Agarwal, M Vidyasagar, Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar etc. are the members of the panel. The panel also faced criticism for not accurately predicting the second wave of Covid-19 that would wreak havoc in the months of March and April. There were 4,14,188 Kovid-19 cases in the country on May 7, which was the highest during the second wave.
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